The client, Keurig Green Mountain is a consumer product company, and their innovation team wanted to provide a constant supply of their product to consumers via anticipated direct-to-consumer delivery subscription service. Using data from a 6-month consumer research panel, they wanted to know how to predict long-term user consumption rates with 90+% confidence in addition to the minimum number of days of data required to make that prediction. This prediction would be used to determine when deliveries should be made.
After studying the data via exploratory analytics to understand consumer usage patterns, the expert created a couple of models which provided long-term predictions of user consumption. In addition to the models, confidence windows were given showing their dependence on the number of days of data used.
While the client had assumed that long-term predictions were necessary for their logistics, the expert showed the client that the data indicated they could achieve better results with a more dynamic system using short-term predictions. In addition, the expert created a stochastic logistics simulation using the consumer panel data to show that the suggested predictive model and parameters would lead to users having less than 1% chance of being left without a product.
Industry: Consumer Goods and Retail
Specialization Or Business Function: Market Research, Consumer Experience
Technical Function: Analytics
Darin Sleiter is a data scientist, who holds a PhD in physics from Stanford and has a background in software development. He applies his analytical skills and development experience to a wide range of data science and data engineering projects using machine learning, big data analytics, and building data products and services. Most of his recent clients have been in the IoT industry.
Working on behalf of Keurig Green Mountain, I set out to determine how we might use existing data to inform the structure of a new auto-delivery service. Experfy helped us access a wide range of Experts who were willing to tackle our project within our defined budget. Ultimately, through interviews which our Experfy contact helped schedule, we were able to identify an Expert who could help us achieve our objectives. Our Experfy contact handled all of the paperwork, allowing the project to proceed swiftly and without interruption. Our Expert, Darin, maintained flexibility as new questions arose and our deliverables changed. He ran several statistical analyses, which led us to obtain the information we desired. He took the time to explain his work in terms my colleague and I could understand and gave us back-up documentation to support his recommendations. He was a pleasure to work with and we’d strongly consider him for future project work. Experfy distinguished themselves as the premier service for connecting organizations such as ours with external individuals who can bring the necessary skills to help address our key business challenges.
Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. (Keurig) is reimagining how beverages can be created, personalized, and enjoyed, fresh-made in homes and workplaces. We are a personal beverage system company revolutionizing the beverage experience through the power of innovative technology and strategic brand partnerships. With an expanding family of more than 70 beloved brands and 445 beverage varieties, our Keurig® hot beverage system delivers great taste, convenience, and choice at the push of a button. As a company founded on social responsibility, we are committed to using the power of business to brew a better world through our work to build resilient supply chains, sustainable products, thriving communities, and a water-secure world.
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