{"id":2284,"date":"2020-02-26T02:58:39","date_gmt":"2020-02-25T23:58:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/kusuaks7\/?p=1889"},"modified":"2024-01-03T18:10:24","modified_gmt":"2024-01-03T18:10:24","slug":"will-humans-be-better-off-in-an-increasingly-ai-based-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.experfy.com\/blog\/ai-ml\/will-humans-be-better-off-in-an-increasingly-ai-based-future\/","title":{"rendered":"Will Humans Be Better Off in an Increasingly AI-Based Future?"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tAfter\u00a0decades<\/a>\u00a0of promise and hype, artificial intelligence is\u00a0finally becoming<\/a>\u00a0one of the most important technologies of our era.\u00a0\u00a0As AI continues to both spread and advance, will it enhance human capacities or will it lessen human autonomy and agency?\u00a0\u00a0By 2030, will most people be better or worse off than they\u2019re today?\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tTo shed light on these very important questions, the\u00a0Pew Research Center<\/a>\u00a0canvassed AI experts this past summer, including technologists developers, and business and policy leaders.\u00a0\u00a0It received almost 1,000 responses, which formed the basis for its recently published report\u00a0Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Humans<\/a>.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tOverall, 63% of respondents were optimistic, predicting that most individuals will mostly be better off, while 37% thought otherwise.\u00a0\u00a0But optimistic or not, most experts expressed concerns about the long-term impact of AI on \u201cthe essential elements of being human.\u201d\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tThe survey further asked the experts to explain their hopes and fears, to sketch out how they envision human-machine interactions over the coming decade, and what actions should be taken to assure the best possible future.\u00a0Many answered, and their detailed\u00a0comments<\/a>\u00a0are organized into the\u00a0report\u2019s<\/a>\u00a0three main sections: concerns; suggested solutions; and expectations for the future.\u00a0\u00a0Let me briefly discuss the key points in each section.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t

Concerns about human-AI evolution<\/strong><\/h2><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tThe use of AI reduces individual\u2019s control over their lives. \u201c<\/em>For years, code-based tools in robots and other systems have performed repetitive tasks like factory-floor assembly activities.\u00a0\u00a0Today, these tools are quickly evolving to master human traits such as reason, logic, learning, task-performance and creativity.\u201d\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tExperts worry that individuals are ceding control over many important decisions to AI-based technologies and tools.\u00a0\u00a0People do so because of the perceived advantages gained by the use of these powerful tools, – e.g., efficiency, convenience, search capabilities.\u00a0\u00a0But, human autonomy and agency may be at risk, sacrificing, to varying degrees, our independence, privacy, and decision-making power.\u00a0\u00a0These concerns will only increase as AI advances continue to permeate just about every aspect of the economy, society and our personal lives.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSurveillance and data systems are primarily designed for efficiency, profit and control.\u00a0\u00a0<\/em>Such systems can be inherently dangerous.\u00a0\u00a0\u201cMost AI tools are and will be in the hands of companies striving for profits or governments striving for power.\u00a0\u00a0Values and ethics are often not baked into the digital systems making people\u2019s decisions for them.\u00a0 These systems are globally networked and not easy to regulate or rein in\u2026 Who decides what about people\u2019s code-defined lives, when, where, why and how?\u201d\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tMany respondents expressed concerns that the future of AI will be primarily shaped by the quest for efficiencies, profit and power, rather than the empowerment of individuals and the betterment of humanity.\u00a0 Experts are also\u00a0justifiably worried<\/a>\u00a0that our increasingly complex AI systems will be prone to serious errors, biases, and false or mistaken assumptions.\u00a0\u00a0We need to ensure that our complex AI systems do what we want them to do.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tDisplacement of human jobs by AI will widen economic divides, possibly leading to social upheaval.\u00a0\u00a0<\/em>Fears that machines will put humans out of work are\u00a0not new<\/a>.\u00a0 Throughout the Industrial Revolution<\/a> there were periodic panics about the impact of automation on jobs.\u00a0\u00a0Automation fears\u00a0have understandbly accelerated<\/a>\u00a0in\u00a0recent years,<\/a>\u00a0as our increasingly\u00a0smart machines<\/a>\u00a0are now being\u00a0applied<\/a>\u00a0to activities requiring intelligence and cognitive capabilities that not long ago were viewed as the exclusive domain of humans.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u201c<\/em>The efficiencies and other economic advantages of code-based machine intelligence will continue to disrupt all aspects of human work.\u00a0\u00a0While some expect new jobs will emerge, others worry about massive job losses, widening economic divides and social upheavals, including populist uprisings.\u201d\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tA recent McKinsey\u00a0report<\/a>\u00a0noted while there will likely be enough work to maintain full employment by 2030, the transition will be very challenging, \u201con a scale not seen since the transition of the labor force out of agriculture in the early 1900s in the United States and Europe, and more recently in China\u2026 up to 375 million workers, or 14 percent of the global workforce, may need to change occupations – and virtually all workers may need to adapt to work alongside machines in new ways.\u201d\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tIndividuals\u2019 cognitive, social and survival skills will be diminished as they become dependent on AI.\u00a0\u00a0<\/em>While many see AI as augmenting human capacities, some predict \u201cthat people\u2019s deepening dependence on machine-driven networks will erode their abilities to think for themselves, take action independent of automated systems and interact effectively with others.\u201d\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tMayhem: Citizens will face increased vulnerabilities, including cybercrime; autonomous, out-of-control cyberwarfare; and weaponized information.\u00a0\u00a0<\/em>Some fear that AI will lead to the erosion of our traditional social and political structures, \u201cthe use of weaponized information, lies and propaganda to dangerously destabilize human groups,\u201d and even \u201cthe possibility of great loss of lives due to accelerated growth of autonomous military applications\u201d\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t

Solutions for addressing these AI concerns<\/strong><\/h2><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tMany of the participants in the Pew Research survey also contributed solutions to these worrisome potential AI future.\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tImprove human collaboration across borders and stakeholder groups.\u00a0\u00a0<\/em>The top priority, a number of experts said, is to achieve a common understanding of the evolving concerns over AI, and to create widely accepted approaches to address these challenges.\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tDevelop policies to assure that development of AI will be directed at augmenting humans and the common good.\u00a0\u00a0<\/em>Many experts suggested that \u201cthere has to be an overall change in the development, regulation and certification of autonomous systems\u2026 that help individuals assure that technology meets social and ethical responsibilities for the common good.\u201d\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tShift the priorities of economic, political and education systems to better help humans stay ahead in the \u201crace with the robots.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0<\/em>Make sure that AI advances are aimed at human augmentation for all, regardless of economic class.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t

How will humans and AI co-evolve by 2030?<\/strong><\/h2><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tExperts were also invited to share their expectations for the co-evolution of humans and AI.\u00a0\u00a0While expressing serious concerns, they had mostly positive expectations for human-AI partnerships, the quality of life in 2030, and the future of work, health care and education:\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tAI<\/em>\u00a0will be integrated into most aspects of life, producing new efficiencies and enhancing human capacities:<\/em>\u00a0\u00a0Experts predicted that the benefits of AI will continue to expand and \u201cdo more things for more people.\u201d\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tAI will optimize and augment people\u2019s lives:\u00a0\u00a0<\/em>Experts hope that AI will help save lives \u201cvia health advances and the reduction of risks and of poverty\u2026\u201d as well as\u00a0\u00a0\u201cspur innovation and broaden opportunities,\u2026\u00a0\u00a0and increase individuals\u2019 overall satisfaction with life.\u201d<\/em>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tOn work: \u201c<\/em>Some predict new work will emerge or solutions will be found, while others have deep concerns about massive job losses and an unraveling society.\u201d\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\nOn health care: \u201c<\/em>Great expectations for many lives saved, extended and improved, mixed with worries about data abuses and a divide between \u2018the haves and have-nots\u2019\u201d\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tOn education<\/em>:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>\u201cHigh hopes for advances in adaptive and individualized learning, but some doubt that there will be any significant progress and worry over digital divide.\u201d\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tFinally, thought leaders warned that our expanding reliance on technological systems will only go well “if close attention is paid to how these tools, platforms and networks are engineered, distributed and updated.\u201d\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Experts worry that individuals are ceding control over many important decisions to AI-based technologies and tools.  People do so because of the perceived advantages gained by the use of these powerful tools, – e.g., efficiency, convenience, search capabilities.  But, human autonomy and agency may be at risk, sacrificing, to varying degrees, our independence, privacy, and decision-making power.  These concerns will only increase as AI advances continue to permeate just about every aspect of the economy, society and our personal lives.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":612,"featured_media":3806,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[183],"tags":[97],"ppma_author":[3320],"class_list":["post-2284","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ai-ml","tag-artificial-intelligence"],"authors":[{"term_id":3320,"user_id":612,"is_guest":0,"slug":"irving-wladawsky-berger","display_name":"Irving Wladawsky-Berger","avatar_url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/?s=96&d=mm&r=g","user_url":"","last_name":"Wladawsky-Berger","first_name":"Irving","job_title":"","description":"Irving Wladawsky-Berger, a Guest Columnist at WSJ CIO Journal, is Research Affiliate at MIT Sloan School of Management, Adjunct Professor at Imperial College, London, and Chairman Advisory Board at r4 Technologies."}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.experfy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2284","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.experfy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.experfy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.experfy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/612"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.experfy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2284"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.experfy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2284\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":35361,"href":"https:\/\/www.experfy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2284\/revisions\/35361"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.experfy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3806"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.experfy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2284"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.experfy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2284"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.experfy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2284"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.experfy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=2284"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}