{"id":2038,"date":"2019-10-30T04:12:34","date_gmt":"2019-10-30T04:12:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/kusuaks7\/?p=1643"},"modified":"2024-03-06T17:35:13","modified_gmt":"2024-03-06T17:35:13","slug":"heres-why-the-robots-wont-really-take-over","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.experfy.com\/blog\/ai-ml\/heres-why-the-robots-wont-really-take-over\/","title":{"rendered":"Here\u2019s Why The Robots Won\u2019t Really Take Over"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tIn 2013,\u00a0a study at Oxford University<\/a>\u00a0found that 47% of jobs in the United States are likely to be replaced by robots over the next two decades. As if that doesn\u2019t seem bad enough, Yuval Noah Harari, in his bestselling book\u00a0Homo Deus<\/em><\/a>, writes that \u201chumans might become militarily and economically useless.\u201d\u00a0Yeesh!<\/em>\u00a0That doesn\u2019t sound good.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tYet today, six years after the Oxford Study, we are experiencing a\u00a0serious labor shortage<\/a>. Even more puzzling is that the shortage is\u00a0especially acute in manufacturing<\/a>, where automation is most pervasive. If\u00a0robots are truly taking over, then why are\u00a0having\u00a0trouble finding enough humans to do work that needs being done?\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tThe truth is that automation doesn\u2019t replace jobs, it replaces tasks and when tasks become automated, they\u00a0largely become commoditized<\/a>. So while there are significant causes for concern about automation,\u00a0such as increasing returns to capital amid decreasing returns to labor<\/a>, the real danger isn\u2019t with automation itself, but what we choose to do with it.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Organisms Are Not Algorithms<\/strong><\/h2><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tHarari\u2019s rationale for humans becoming useless is his assertion that \u201corganisms are algorithms.\u201d Much like a vending machine is programed to respond to buttons, humans and other animals are programed by genetics and evolution to respond to \u201csensations, emotions and thoughts.\u201d When those particular buttons are pushed, we respond much like a vending machine does.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tHe gives various data points for this point of view. For example, he describes psychological experiments in which, by monitoring brainwaves, researchers are able to predict actions, such as whether a person will flip a switch, even\u00a0before he or she is aware of it. He also points out that certain\u00a0chemicals, such as Ritalin and Prozac, can modify behavior.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tTherefore, he continues, free will is an illusion because we don\u2019t choose our urges. Nobody makes a conscious choice to crave chocolate cake or cigarettes any more than we choose whether to be attracted to someone other than our spouse. Those things are a product of our biological programming.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tYet none of this is at all dispositive. While it is true that we don\u2019t choose our urges, we do choose our actions. We can be aware of our urges and still resist them. In fact, we consider developing the ability to resist urges as an integral part of growing up. Mature adults are supposed to resist things like gluttony, adultery and greed.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Revealing And Building<\/strong><\/h2><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tIf you believe that organisms are algorithms, it\u2019s easy to see how humans become subservient to machines. As machine learning techniques combine with massive computing power, machines will be able to predict, with great accuracy, which buttons will lead to what actions. Here again, an incomplete picture leads to a spurious conclusion.\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tIn his 1954 essay,\u00a0The Question Concerning Technology<\/em><\/a>\u00a0the German philosopher\u00a0Martin Heidegger<\/a>\u00a0sheds some light on these issues. He described technology as akin to art, in that it reveals truths about the nature of the world, brings them forth and puts them to some specific use. In the process, human nature and its capacity for good and evil is also revealed.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tHe gives the example of a hydroelectric dam, which reveals the energy of a river and puts it to use making electricity. In much the same sense, Mark Zuckerberg did not \u201cbuild\u201d a social network at Facebook, but took natural human tendencies and channeled them in a particular way. After all, we go online not for bits or electrons, but to connect with each other.\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tIn another essay,\u00a0Building Dwelling Thinking<\/a><\/em>, \u00a0Heidegger explains that building also plays an important role, because to build for the world, we first must understand what it means to live in it. Once we understand that Mark Zuckerberg, or anyone else for that matter, is working to manipulate us, we can work to prevent it. In fact, knowing that someone or something seeks to control us gives us an urge to resist. If we\u2019re all algorithms, that\u2019s part of the code.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Social Skills Will Trump Cognitive Skills<\/b><\/h2><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tAll of this is, of course, somewhat speculative. What is striking, however, is the extent to which the opposite of what Harari and other \u201cexperts\u201d predict is happening. Not only have greater automation and more powerful machine learning algorithms not led to mass unemployment it has, as noted above, led to a labor shortage. What gives?\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tTo understand what\u2019s going on, consider the legal industry, which is rapidly being automated. Basic activities like legal discovery are now\u00a0largely done by algorithms<\/a>. Services like\u00a0LegalZoom<\/a>\u00a0automate basic filings. There are even artificial intelligence systems that can\u00a0predict the outcome<\/a>\u00a0of a court case better than a human can.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tSo it shouldn\u2019t be surprising that many experts predict gloomy days ahead for lawyers. By now, you can probably predict the punchline. The number of lawyers in the US has\u00a0increased by 15%<\/a>\u00a0since 2008 and it\u2019s not hard to see why. People don\u2019t hire lawyers for their ability to hire cheap associates to do discovery, file basic documents or even, for the most part, to go to trial. In large part, the want someone they can trust to advise them.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tThe true shift in the legal industry will be\u00a0from cognitive to social skills<\/a>. When much of the cognitive heavy lifting can be done by machines, attorneys who can show empathy and build trust will have an advantage over those who depend on their ability to retain large amounts of information and read through lots of documents.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Value Never Disappears, It Just Shifts To Another Place<\/strong><\/h2><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tIn 1900,\u00a030 million people<\/a>\u00a0in the United States worked as farmers, but by 1990 that number had fallen to\u00a0under 3 million<\/a>\u00a0even as the population more than tripled. So, in a matter of speaking, 90% of American agriculture workers lost their jobs, mostly due to automation. Yet somehow, the twentieth century was seen as an era of unprecedented prosperity.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tYou can imagine anyone working in agriculture a hundred years ago would be horrified to find that their jobs would vanish over the next century. If you told them that everything would be okay because they could find work as computer scientists, geneticists or digital marketers, they would probably have thought that you were some kind of a nut.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tBut consider if you told them that instead of working in the fields all day, they could spend that time in a nice office that was cool and dry because of something called \u201cair conditioning,\u201d and that they would have machines that cook meals without needing wood to be chopped and hauled. To sweeten the pot you could tell them that \u201dwork\u201d would mostly consist largely of talking to other people. They may have imagined it as a paradise.\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tThe truth is that\u00a0value never disappears<\/a>, it just shifts to another place. That\u2019s why today we have less farmers, but more food and, for better or worse, more lawyers. It is also why it\u2019s highly unlikely that the robots will take over, because we are not algorithms. We have the power to choose.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

If robots are truly taking over, then why are having trouble finding enough humans to do work that needs being done? The truth is that automation doesn’t replace jobs, it replaces tasks and when tasks become automated, they largely become commoditized. So while there are significant causes for concern about automation, such as increasing returns to capital amid decreasing returns to labor, the real danger isn’t with automation itself, but what we choose to do with it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":622,"featured_media":2513,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[183,965],"tags":[97],"ppma_author":[3337],"class_list":["post-2038","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ai-ml","category-ai-machine-learning","tag-artificial-intelligence"],"authors":[{"term_id":3337,"user_id":622,"is_guest":0,"slug":"greg-satell","display_name":"Greg Satell","avatar_url":"https:\/\/www.experfy.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/medium_09100e21-0736-4ca7-ac55-7140c8c4d9d2-150x150.jpg","user_url":"https:\/\/www.gregsatell.com\/%20","last_name":"Satell","first_name":"Greg","job_title":"","description":"Greg Satell is an international keynote speaker, adviser and bestselling author of Cascades: How to Create a Movement that Drives Transformational Change. His previous effort, Mapping Innovation, was selected as one of the best business books of 2017. You can learn more about Greg on his website, GregSatell.com<\/a> and follow him on Twitter<\/a>.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0"}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.experfy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2038","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.experfy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.experfy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.experfy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/622"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.experfy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2038"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.experfy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2038\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":36274,"href":"https:\/\/www.experfy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2038\/revisions\/36274"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.experfy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2513"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.experfy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2038"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.experfy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2038"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.experfy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2038"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.experfy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=2038"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}