{"id":1042,"date":"2018-12-26T00:56:00","date_gmt":"2018-12-25T21:56:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/kusuaks7\/?p=647"},"modified":"2021-05-11T14:02:41","modified_gmt":"2021-05-11T14:02:41","slug":"machine-learning-in-finance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.experfy.com\/blog\/software-ux-ui\/machine-learning-in-finance\/","title":{"rendered":"Machine Learning in Finance"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><em>Ready to learn Machine Learning? Browse<\/em><\/strong> <strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.experfy.com\/training\/tracks\/machine-learning-training-certification\">Machine Learning Training and Certification courses<\/a> developed by industry thought leaders and Experfy in Harvard Innovation Lab.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<h4>How AI is used for trading, fraud detection, insurance &amp; personalised banking<\/h4>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.ctfassets.net\/2yr4wv2jga4w\/6IoWEqpilacc6EwGs2cGoO\/1fa3ac6c44236283b602b4a635a7be4f\/Finance_Machine.png\" style=\"width: 700px; height: 392px;\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>There is a lot to be gained for finance businesses in applying AI. And &#8211; in fact &#8211; plenty are already doing so successfully. To give you an idea &#8211; here&rsquo;s a summary of the top applications of AI in Finance.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"ai-for-trading\">AI for trading<\/h2>\n<p>We can&rsquo;t talk about Machine Learning in finance without talking about Machine Learning for trading. In fact, there is so much to talk about that we dedicated a whole article to&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.datarevenue.com\/en\/usecases\/machine-learning-for-trading\" rel=\"noopener\">Machine Learning for Trading<\/a><\/p>\n<p>I summarised most important points here:<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"ai-doesnt-replace-traders--it-helps-them\">AI doesn&rsquo;t replace traders &ndash; It helps them<\/h3>\n<p>Traders need to process a very large amount of information &ndash; to stay up to date with what&rsquo;s happening and develop informed hunches about where things are going.<\/p>\n<p>They also conduct rigorous statistical analyses to decipher the details of small-market inefficiencies.<\/p>\n<p>All of this takes time &ndash; and since trading is a competitive game, the faster you are, the more of the pie you get.<\/p>\n<p>AI helps make traders faster and more accurate in their analyses by&nbsp;<strong>summarising news<\/strong>&nbsp;(e.g., with sentiment analysis),&nbsp;<strong>improving predictions<\/strong>&nbsp;of external factors (such as rainfall, commodity supply volumes, or election outcomes), and automating the fine-tuning of&nbsp;<strong>high-frequency trading machines<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"automated--profitable-ai-trading-is-mostly-a-fantasy\">Automated &amp; profitable AI trading is mostly a fantasy<\/h3>\n<p>AI is still much weaker than human brains when it comes to making decisions in complex systems where you compete against other human beings &#8211; like you do in stock markets &ndash; so be wary of anyone that promises a profit based on pure-play AI systems.<\/p>\n<p>There are lots of common mistakes that make it seem like this is possible &ndash;&nbsp;when in fact it isn&rsquo;t.<\/p>\n<p>For more details about why this is the case &ndash; and learn more about the ways you can use AI instead &ndash; check out our in-depth article on&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.datarevenue.com\/en\/usecases\/machine-learning-for-trading\" rel=\"noopener\">Machine Learning for Trading<\/a><\/p>\n<h2 id=\"making-portfolio-management-better--cheaper\">Making portfolio management better &amp; cheaper<\/h2>\n<p>Portfolio managers tell you where to invest your money &ndash; depending on your financial goals and the market fluctuations you can deal with (your risk tolerance).<\/p>\n<p>They pick different types of investments and arrange a&nbsp;<em>portfolio<\/em>&nbsp;(a list of assets plus the percentage of your money that should go into each one). If the market changes &ndash; which it constantly does &ndash; this portfolio needs to be recalibrated by moving your money around between assets.<\/p>\n<p>For a human being, this is a&nbsp;<strong>time-intensive process<\/strong>&nbsp;&ndash; so banks charge a lot for this service and only offer it to their wealthy clients. But good investment advice helps everyone, no matter how large your savings are.<\/p>\n<p>That&rsquo;s why there&rsquo;s been a rapid rise in&nbsp;<strong>&ldquo;robo-advisors.&rdquo;<\/strong>&nbsp;Not only are they very cheap &ndash; they actually do their job better than more expensive, human portfolio managers.<\/p>\n<p>Why? Because many human advisors can&rsquo;t stop themselves from promising their clients superior returns via &ldquo;secret tips&rdquo; &ndash; which, in an efficient market, is always an illusion, and hence a bad idea. These &ldquo;tips&rdquo; end up adding a lot of risk to your portfolio &ndash; and might wipe out a big chunk of your savings. (I&rsquo;ve seen this happen a couple of times &ndash; and it&rsquo;s not pretty.)<\/p>\n<p><strong>The secret<\/strong>&nbsp;of why AI is so useful in portfolio management is that its almost purely a statistical process. Every factor that goes into determining your ideal asset mix (portfolio) can&nbsp;<strong>easily be expressed in numbers<\/strong>: your age, income, family status, when you&rsquo;ll need money (for a house, kids, education, etc.), and your risk tolerance &ndash;&nbsp;all easy to enter as numbers in a database.<\/p>\n<p>Based on this data, AI can predict your preferences (like when you&rsquo;re likely to need how much money). Once you have this information, then the correct allocation of your money is simply a matter of solving a mathematical formula &ndash; which is a simple task for any computer.<\/p>\n<p>Want to learn more about the theory behind statistical asset allocation? &ndash;&nbsp;Check out&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Modern_portfolio_theory\" rel=\"noopener\">Modern Portfolio Theory<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"strengthening-fraud-detection\">Strengthening fraud detection<\/h2>\n<p>With increasing digital commerce (through credit cards and online payments), the incentive to commit fraud is also constantly increasing.<\/p>\n<p>Traditional fraud models rely on simple rule systems &ndash; checklists designed to catch fraudsters. The biggest drawback of these simple means of identifying fraud is that they produce&nbsp;<strong>a lot of false alarms<\/strong>. Which means legitimate customers are denied purchase transactions &ndash; and they&rsquo;re rightfully upset, and will go and buy somewhere else.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Machine Learning can produce more accurate fraud-detection checklists<\/strong>&nbsp;while also reducing false alarms. Why are AI models better? These are the Top 3 Reasons:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Data driven<\/strong>: Machine Learning models go through all the examples of fraudulent purchases and &ndash; free of human bias &ndash; find the exact patterns that differentiate fraudsters from customers.<\/li>\n<li><strong>More complex<\/strong>: Machine Learning models can easily capture thousands of small patterns and use them to check a transaction &ndash; something that isn&rsquo;t realistic if you&rsquo;re writing a checklist by hand. This means the models are more accurate and produce fewer false alarms.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Continually updating<\/strong>: Fraudsters are inventive and constantly try new things to trick the system. Once you&rsquo;ve found fraud that your system hasn&rsquo;t caught yet, it only takes a few minutes to update the model so it learns how to spot the new trick from now on. The great thing is: it doesn&rsquo;t matter whether you&rsquo;re fighting one inventive fraudster or thousands &ndash; an AI system can learn all their patterns just as easily, with no need to cut corners or generalise.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Fraud systems are mostly side-kicks<\/strong>, like algorithms in trading: a human being still needs to do the final check on all the transactions tagged as fraud. Why? Because 1-1, humans are still better at reading other humans&rsquo; behaviour &ndash;&nbsp;Machine Learning just makes our work easier.<\/p>\n<p>Want to learn more? We wrote an article about using AI to better detect&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.datarevenue.com\/en\/usecases\/stopping-mobile-click-fraud\" rel=\"noopener\">Mobile Click Fraud<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"making-insurance-underwriting-more-accurate--personal\">Making insurance underwriting more accurate &amp; personal<\/h2>\n<p>Similar to portfolio management (above), insurance underwriting is a job with a clear set of quantified factors (inputs), quantified goals, and fixed outputs: the price of the insurance and its premiums over time.<\/p>\n<p>This is&nbsp;<strong>the ideal environment for automated statistical decision-making<\/strong>* &ndash; meaning: Machine Learning.<\/p>\n<p>For years, underwriters have already been using simpler statistical models to estimate the underwriting risk and decide on the right premiums.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Machine Learning models can go further<\/strong>&nbsp;and make almost the entire underwriting job cheap and scalable. The key is the insurance company&rsquo;s data: the thousands of contracts they&rsquo;ve already calculated &ndash;&nbsp;with human input &ndash;&nbsp;are the ideal basis on which to train a Machine Learning model to learn to write contracts itself.<\/p>\n<p>Machin Learning models like this open the door to cheap, individualised underwriting &ndash; which is especially helpful in the B2C space (such as life insurance).<\/p>\n<p>But that&rsquo;s just the beginning &ndash; the insurance business is stastical through-and-through, so there are many more AI applications. Here are two examples:<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"good-drivers-pay-less-for-car-insurance\">Good drivers pay less for car insurance<\/h3>\n<p>Some insurance providers are already predicting your risk of having an accident based on&nbsp;<strong>the way you drive<\/strong>&nbsp;(your telematic signature). They use algorithms to learn which driving behaviours are signs of a safe driver &ndash; and then they offer those drivers cheaper rates.<\/p>\n<p>This sets insurance companies apart from the competition and attracts safe drivers who don&rsquo;t want to pay for risky drivers&rsquo; mistakes.<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"predicting-which-insurance-youll-choose\">Predicting which insurance you&rsquo;ll choose<\/h3>\n<p>Another way Machine Learning makes insurance companies&rsquo; lives easier is by predicting the exact insurance option you&rsquo;ll prefer in the end. This makes your advisor&rsquo;s job much easier, because they can propose the options that make the most sense to you right away.<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"and-this-is-just-the-tip-of-the-iceberg\">And this is just the tip of the iceberg<\/h3>\n<p>There are many more applications, such as: predicting whether you&rsquo;ll be a&nbsp;<strong>loyal customer<\/strong>, whether you&rsquo;ll&nbsp;<strong>default on the insurance<\/strong>&nbsp;or&nbsp;<strong>file a claim<\/strong>&nbsp;in the future.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"targeted-sales-of-banking-services\">Targeted sales of banking services<\/h2>\n<p>Banks have a lot of very valuable data on you &ndash; besides knowing your age, income, and where you live, they also know your exact spending behaviour. To put it mildly, this reveals a lot about you. Maybe more than your online browsing behaviour.<\/p>\n<p>If a bank used all the information hidden in this data, it could learn a lot about you &ndash;&nbsp;including&nbsp;<strong>which services you&rsquo;re interested in right now<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Banks hire advisors to give some personal advice &ndash;&nbsp;but they only have time for the big clients, and an advisor needs a lot of experience to read the signs correctly.<\/p>\n<p>Machine Learning can find the relevant information in your data and predict which bank products fit your current interests:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>A new credit card or a higher credit limit?<\/li>\n<li>A temporary loan?<\/li>\n<li>Or maybe a mortgage, because you&rsquo;re behaving like someone who plans to buy a house soon?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Not only that, banks can also use Machine Learning to predict the likelihood that you&rsquo;ll repay that credit, loan, or mortgage &ndash; and hence which interest rate they should charge you.<\/p>\n<p>This will increasingly lead to&nbsp;<strong>proactive lending.<\/strong>&nbsp;Instead of waiting for you to apply for a loan, thanks to algorithmic profiling, banks will offer a tailored loan&nbsp;<em>to you<\/em>&nbsp;&ndash; and also to millions of other customers.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"churn-prediction---predicting-whether-youll-switch-banks\">Churn prediction &#8211; Predicting whether you&rsquo;ll switch banks<\/h2>\n<p>Once you decide to switch banks and let your advisor know, it&rsquo;s usually too late to convince you to stay. It would be much better if they saw the warning signs early and had a chance to make you happier&nbsp;<em>before you decide to leave.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Banks can use the same profiles as above &ndash; built from your data and transaction histories &#8211; to predict whether you&rsquo;re likely to switch to another bank. This gives advisors early warning of who to focus on and helps the bank retain many customers they would otherwise lose.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"so-why-is-ai-so-useful-in-finance\">So why is AI so useful in finance?<\/h2>\n<p>Simply put, because finance is a game played with data and statistics. Financial products are mostly mathematical bets: statistical equations that &ndash; on average &ndash; should return a profit.<\/p>\n<p>In the simpler and more repetetive parts of this game, we can substitute Machine Learning for human brainpower and automate a lot of decisions.<\/p>\n<p>That is, unless we&rsquo;re directly competing against other human beings &ndash;&nbsp;as in trading or fraud detection, where human competition makes the game much more complicated. In those cases, we&rsquo;re better off using our strongest weapon: our own brains.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Financial products are mostly mathematical bets: statistical equations that &ndash; on average &ndash; should return a profit. In the simpler and more repetetive parts of this game, we can substitute Machine Learning for human brainpower and automate a lot of decisions. There is a lot to be gained for finance businesses in applying AI. And &#8211; in fact &#8211; plenty are already doing so successfully. To give you an idea &#8211; here&rsquo;s a summary of the top applications of AI in Finance.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":314,"featured_media":3760,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[200],"tags":[],"ppma_author":[2069],"class_list":["post-1042","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-software-ux-ui"],"authors":[{"term_id":2069,"user_id":314,"is_guest":0,"slug":"markus-schmitt","display_name":"Markus Schmitt","avatar_url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/?s=96&d=mm&r=g","user_url":"","last_name":"Schmitt","first_name":"Markus","job_title":"","description":"Markus Schmitt is the founder and head of data science at Data Revenue, a Machine Learning Agency based in Berlin, Germany, where he builds custom end-to-end machine learning systems for Medical, Finance and Marketing clients. Before Data Revenue he developed new ventures for the company builder Team Europe and studied Mathematics &amp; Economics at Warwick."}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.experfy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1042","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.experfy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.experfy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.experfy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/314"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.experfy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1042"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.experfy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1042\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15270,"href":"https:\/\/www.experfy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1042\/revisions\/15270"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.experfy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3760"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.experfy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1042"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.experfy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1042"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.experfy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1042"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.experfy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=1042"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}